Beyond Scarcity: Water Security in The Middle East and North Africa

Of all the challenges the Middle East and North Africa region faces, it is least prepared for water crises. The World Economic Forum asked experts and leaders in the region: “For which global risks is your region least prepared?” The majority of respondents identified water crises as the greatest threat to the region—greater even than political instability or Countries that fail to achieve water security forgo potential growth, increase vulnerabilities to hydrological shocks, and may potentially compound social and political fragility. The Middle East and North Africa region has the greatest expected economic losses from climate-related water scarcity, estimated at 6–14 percent of GDP by 2050, as shown in figure ES.3 (World Bank 2016). The impacts of scarcity and hydrological shocks, such as droughts and floods, increase where forecast and warning systems are weak, stormwater and flood management are inadequate, irrigation infrastructure is minimal, and water stored in reservoirs and aquifers is insufficient. Governments’ failure to deliver basic water services, and to mitigate the impacts of water-related hazards and risks, can erode legitimacy and compound social and political fragility. The risks and opportunities relating to water security in the region have never been greater. Because water scarcity has been a central feature of the region throughout its history, there is potential for complacency in accepting the limitations that water scarcity implies, or for dependence on incremental or traditional responses to water challenges. Given the rapid growth of the region’s economy and population, incremental solutions are increasingly inadequate and unaffordable. Fortunately, at the same time, many countries have demonstrated success in implementing innovative programs to diminish wasteful nonrevenue water (water that is produced and lost before it reaches the customer), to increase water productivity, and to produce nonconventional water through wastewater recycling or desalination. The cost-effectiveness of these technologies is also rapidly improving, changing the landscape of options for the next generation of water management. Achieving water security in the Middle East and North Africa requires a new way of looking at water management. The policies, incentives, and institutional weaknesses in many countries have led to inefficient and low-value water use as well as unreliable water services and unregulated water usage and wastewater discharge. Despite water scarcity, the region’s water service fees are very low, and its effective water subsidies are the highest in the world (Kochhar et al. 2015). These policies promote resource degradation, aggravate fiscal deficits, and compound vulnerabilities. The way in which water is delivered, allocated, priced, and managed can have profound implications for the region’s economic growth. It will influence the structure of its economies and its environmental sustainability, along with social inclusion and regional stability. Now and in the future, a broader range of tools, technologies, and policies will need to be considered, debated, and implemented. Investments in water infrastructure, information systems, institutions, and technologies will be needed. Societies will need to move beyond the traditional approach to managing scarcity by augmenting supplies, and consider controversial solutions. These may include policies that create incentives for water conservation and water use efficiency, including fees, fines, permitting, and pricing,2 as well as wastewater recycling and reuse; and the reallocation of water from rural to urban users and from agriculture to industry. Furthermore, social inclusion must be central to the delivery of water services and protection of poor and marginalized populations from water-related risks. unemployment (World Economic Forum 2015). The Middle East and North Africa is the most water scarce region in the world.1 Over 60 percent of the region’s population lives in areas with high or very high surface water stress, compared with a global average of about 35 percent. Over 70 percent of the region’s gross domestic product (GDP) is generated in areas with high to very high surface water stress, compared with a global average of some 22 percent. The region’s current water challenges go far beyond age-old constraints of water scarcity. While the region’s water scarcity challenges have been apparent for hundreds of years, newer challenges are adding both hazards and complexity. The complexities of the water-food-energy nexus, climate change, droughts and floods, water quality, transboundary water management, and the management of water in the context of fragility, conflict, and violence compound the challenge of water scarcity. Meeting these challenges will depend as much on better governance of water resources as on more and better resource endowments, infrastructure investments, and technologies. Many countries in the region are already eroding their water resource base. For millennia, investments and innovations in water management have been made across the region. However, accelerating economic and population growth coupled with poor governance have now overwhelmed these efforts in many countries. Unsustainable volumes of water are being withdrawn, degrading ecosystems and aquifers. Overdrawing water from rivers and aquifers is equivalent to living beyond one’s means—drawing down or depreciating a country’s natural capital and undermining its longer-term wealth and resilience. A fundamental development challenge for the region is to take the actions necessary to navigate sustainable pathways toward water security. Sustainable pathways would anticipate and manage the inevitable increases in water scarcity and water-related risks—against a backdrop of climate change, urbanization, growing fiscal constraints, and widespread fragility and conflict. Planning and action are needed to strengthen the resilience of economies and societies to protect them from water-related disasters. Planning and management are also needed to deliver water services that are affordable for both users and government budgets, and to mitigate the costs and social disruptions that can be expected to result from extreme scarcity, sudden supply interruptions, contamination, floods, or droughts. Water challenges can compound existing and emerging instabilities and can contribute to unrest and conflict. Failure to address water challenges in the Middle East and North Africa can have significant negative spillover effects both within and outside the region. Water security exists when water is effectively, sustainably, and equitably managed both to leverage its productive potential and to mitigate its destructive potential. Water security has been defined as “the availability of an acceptable quantity and quality of water for health, livelihoods, ecosystems and production, coupled with an acceptable level of water-related risks to people, environments and economies” (Grey and Sadoff 2007 p. 545). Water security goes beyond water scarcity to take account not only of a country’s water resource endowment, but also of the productive and protective actions the country has taken to secure water. Some of the most water-scarce countries in the world are also arguably some of the most water secure—while some of the most water-rich countries in the world struggle to protect their populations from water-related disasters and to provide improved drinking water access.